Another Problem and a Major Update
Lots of news and a new prediction
1) Of the remaining verifications (where we know the original vote), nearly 2/3 are in areas where Raila performed better (65-40). Since Ruto is slightly ahead, this is statistically unlikely to have happened accidentally. It suggests pro-Raila seat verifications are being held back deliberately.
2) Kajiado East is finally in. Odinga win 2-1.
3) Kilgoris (Narok) is finally in . Ruto win.
4) Kacheliba (West Pokot) is finally in. Ruto win.
5) Wajir South is finally in.Raila narrow win
6) Voi finally in also. 2-1 Raila victory
Now only 8 entirely missing results and three where the form was corrupted:
Ruto is 340K ahead, 50.9% to 48.4%
Which is very close to unofficial counts from the 34Bs from both alliances which are circulating round social media.
Raila now need 82% of the remaining vote IF there is no playing around with the 34Bs. Not yet impossible but increasingly unlikely. Its key now to watch for sudden increases in the Raila vote in their heartlands in Nyanza (between the scanned 34B and the verified 34Bs).
Turnout still looks reasonable, no huge spikes. But Juja with those extra 10,000 votes is a bit high, Mandera South and Tarbaj look odd. Taveta is against the run of the region too. All four marked in red below.
STAREHE - Nairobi - 50-50
Nyakach is in
These verification is just monkey business the final results is obviously ruto wins
Leave a Reply.
Thoughts on anything Kenya, mostly political.