Bomachoge Borabu has now been verified without the 34B being uploaded (4th case). Suba South was illegible and now corrected. Kandara 34B verification reduced the Ruto vote by 1000. Mandera South is finally in on the portal.
Result: Ruto lead reduced to 400K. Raila need 74% of the remaining 850K votes to win
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Embakasi West is up on the portal. We now have 274 results in, of which 5 have issues, and around 1/3 of which have been formally verified.
Status: 1 million votes (est) to go, Ruto leading by 470K. Raila needs 72% of the remaining votes to win. However the majority of seats with missing 34B scans are pro-Azimio. Some may turn up in the verifications from Bomas before the scan goes up. We now have nearly all the results for county level posts and nearly all the presidentials and MPs results, so the 5-way match summary is almost complete. Notes:
1. Sakaja (Nairobi) victory a personal one. But there will undoubtedly be an immediate petition against his election as unqualified. 2. khalwales victory in Kakamega similar. 3. Four independents elected. 4. Only Samburu and Isiolo show a notable difference between the presidential winners and the rest of the polls. Any level 2 (actual numbers) five way match should start with these two. With Sakaja's victory in Nairobi we only have Narok left. reports earlier today were that Nttu had won and he is listed on the nation front page as a winner but I also see announcements that the completion of the count has been postponed for security reasons. this gives us: So, neck and neck, but as Kakamega and probably Mombasa will still go Azimio, and Mwadime is likely to be pro-Azimio as well, they will have 24, while Nark will probably go to KK and Mwangaza in Meru will probably align with KK giving them 23. So, leadership of the Council of Governors will depend on Mombasa. If Ruto wins, given the solid showing he put up in Mombasa presidentials, it is not impossible they could take it.
Second difference, Likuyani (Kakamega) one polling station missing from the 34B total, so plus 200 votes for Raila. Mavoko (Machakos) - rejected ballots reduced from 992 to 291 which is a curious change but has no effect. Unfortunately, there are two constituencies where the four candidate's votes do not add up to the total in the published IEBC result. Differences are trivial but the fact that they exist at all means care is needed (unless the media house misreported or the person misspoke, also possible). Example (from Standard): Summary: Ruto exactly 500K ahead IEBC official: heading in the same direction
First material 34B difference found - in Bonchari in Kisii. Looks as if one polling station was entirely omitted in the unverified 34B, and has now been included in the official results. Benefitted Odinga by about 500 votes overall. So far i've verified 38 and the other 37 are fine.
Tongaren (Bungoma) and Luanda (Vihiga) have been verified when I didn't see the 34Bs online at all. So maybe I missed them. But I've added them to the final total anyway and let's look for the 34Bs later. For West Mugirango (Nyamira) the scanned form was truncated, now we have the verified finals. That gives us enough new data to be worth updating: 500K lead for Ruto. 1.15 m votes to go (estimated). Rails has to get 72% of the remaining vote. Unlikely but impossible. Good morning all. A quick reminder for everyone, there have been three counting processes
Where I have the official IEBC count, I have reapplied their changes to my unverified count. I will now (1) capture any new scanned 34bs which came into the portal overnight night (DONE) then (2) apply the corrections IEBC have made to my records. In the last 12 hours only TWO of the missing 34B scans have come in. Not great. No reason of any sort has yet been given publicly for what has happened to the remaining 19 entirely missing. The six with image truncation issues (so parts of the results are missing) will presumably be fixed in the Bomas verification process, but they can't verify what they don't have. These are the missing 34Bs by county DIASPORA NAIROBI STAREHE NAIROBI EMBAKASI EAST NAIROBI EMBAKASI SOUTH MANDERA MANDERA SOUTH WAJIR WAJIR SOUTH GARISSA LAGDERA GARISSA DADAAB GARISSA FAFI MOMBASA MVITA KAJIADO KAJIADO EAST NAROK NAROK SOUTH NAROK KILGORIS WEST POKOT KACHELIBA BUNGOMA TONGAREN VIHIGA LUANDA VIHIGA SABATIA KISUMU NYAKACH KISII BOMACHOGE BORABU NYAMIRA BORABU So, before cross referencing 34b scans vs 34B finals, the situation is as above: 650K ahead for Ruto still. Only two new results and both were 50-50. On turnouts, it seems Mombasa turnouts were indeed heavily depressed as was alleged by Azimio due to the deferment of the gubernatorial elections (43% turnout only so far with one seat missing). The Kakamega results less so (60% turnout). I imagine this could be part of a future Azimio petition. The image showing where the votes came from for the two candidates by constituency i've updated and also reversed the sequence to show Azimio first in blue, as I noted that visually it makes a difference. Ill alternate now to avoid visual bias.
Finally for now, my personal creation: the "equal-vote" county map, 1 box is 100,000 registered voters. All from 34Bs 3 more scans up
1 Home Bay 1 Narok 1 Tana River Result: Ruto 520 K ahead. Big win for Azimio in Narok North. 1.5 m to tally. Raila needs 67% of remainder to win. the majority of the missing 34Bs are in Odinga areas, so the gap will narrow. So far none of the 34Bs validated by IEBC that I've checked have differed materially from the originals -mostly minor changes to spoilt votes. Four more in the last hour or so. Very slow. 267 uploaded, 260 of which are valid. 89% complete
so far the verification has not changed any 34B materially -there have been tiny changes in some spoilt ballot numbers but everything else is identical. 31 missing of which 7 are there, but have mistakes making them unable. Still 680K lead for Ruto (5%). 1.7 million votes est left to tally. Raila need 71% or better of the remainder to win, assuming the 34Bs stand up as summaries of the 34As - as so far they have. |
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