By-elections, a Quick Post Mortem

The 27 November by-elections produced results much as I expected and predicted, with one notable difference. Both UDA candidates, expected to lose to their DP and DAP-K challengers, won narrow victories with higher turnouts than usual.

The three "broad based govenrnment" easy wins in Banissa, Baringo and Ugunja went as expected, Were (ODM) defeated Aroko (IND) as predicted in Kasipul and Kombe (ODM) returned to parliament as predicted in October in Magarini. In Malava, however, Ndakwa beat Pakyako by 1300 votes, and in the highest profile seat of all, Mbeere North, the combined opposition DP candidate (who I felt would be the clear winner) lost to UDA by only 494 on a huge turnout (for a by-election) of 62%. All appeared transparent in the IEBC station by station results, but an election petition has been raised on procedural grounds. 
 p.s the Kenya Moja candidates proved as suspected to be irrelevant. While their voice may be stronger in urban areas, vote patterns in rural areas continue to operate on more typical lines.