By-Elections, First Prediction

First by-elections since 2024 will be held 27 November 2025 by the newly reconstituted IEBC.
1 senate and 6 MP seats will be up for grabs (I will not try to cover MCAs)

​Result Prediction (based on what I know so far)

Senate
Baringo                Chemitei                             UDA 100%

National Assembly
Mbeere North     Karish                                  DP 75%, UDA 25%
Banissa               Hassan alias Barre             UDA 100%
Magarini              Kombe                                ODM 75%, DCP 25%
Malava                 Panyako/Ndakwa              DAP-K 60%, UDA 40%,
Ugunja                 Omondi                              ODM 100%
Kasipul                 Were/Aroko                       ODM 75%, Ind 25%
 
Will also be interested ton see whether any Kenya Moja candidates manage to make any impression (10% or more). I'm doubtful so far, but it’s a good test of whether the explicitly Gen Z non-ethnic concept will work operationally in Kenya’s political system. DCP is basically out of the race everywhere except Magarini, but DP is their proxy/ally in Mbeere N.
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