I predicted no overall control, but no-one could have predicted a 164-164 split (that's allocating independents who left a party before or after the primaries back to the party they came on). The five true independents hold the balance of power. Whichever president wins will need a stable majority to govern, so is likely to make an offer to a smaller party from the losing side. My money is on Ruto and Musyoka.
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March 2024
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