Correction: one ODM Tana River seat was wrongly attributed to UDA in the heat of the moment. Below is the final state of the house after the 12 nominated MP slots were allocated proportional to party strength. There is one change as I had an error in the women rep numbers earlier. this is before the poaching started Comparing my eve of poll prediction with the final (with one presentation change to visually separate the county Women Representatives from the constituency MPs as it was difficult to keep track otherwise): Most predictions were pretty spot on. Jubilee indeed collapsed across much of ex-Central Province (which I had predicted but not fully taken into account) but ODM did slightly better to compensate. This left the two alliances balanced (with Azimio four ahead and four elections delayed) and the four true independent constituency MPs and one true independent woman representative nominally holding the balance of power (for a day or so, before KK started to "acquire" them).
Since that time UDM has defected en masse, and KK has also brought on board most independents and a couple of individual Azimio MPs, giving them a narrow - too narrow - majority of circa 19.
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February 2023
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