With Places Taken, the Dance Begins

With virtually every match-making exercise complete, the Kenyan political dance now takes on a more structured character as we head into election season proper. We now know that it is a two-horse race between William Ruto and Raila Odinga, each backed by supporting alliances, but with Raila's Azimio openly backed by Uhuru Kenyatta and the state apparatus. With the onboarding of Luhya leaders Mudavadi and Wetang'ula Ruto has strengthened his national credentials and gained a strong base in Western Province, but benefited less than he hoped nationwide. Raila's Azimio alliance has lost the Kikuyu, Embu and Meru but elsewhere has strengthened its position, recently winning over a very reluctant Kalonzo Musyoka. The two alliances are now neck and neck overall, with pretty much every model giving both candidates between 7.5 m and 8.5 m votes each, leaving the end result open. A narrow victory for either party is unlikely to be a comfortable outcome for Kenya. 

The model below shows my prediction as to which alliance and presidential candidate will (in my opinion, based on multiple factors) win the presidential election in each county. In most cases, the leading candidate is clear, the final result will be determined by the size of their majority.

Each square is a country, irrespective of size. The layout roughly maintains geography but only roughly.