A political history of the northern Kikuyu of Nyeri, Kirinyaga and Nyandarua as told through their elected representatives, 1957-2022 (including results of the 2022 election).
President William Ruto's first cabinet was announced after some delay on 27 September, and a curious collection it was. With 22 cabinet secretaries, plus the President, Deputy President and the Attorney General (ex-officio), there are 25 seats at that august table. So, let's take a look at Ruto's choices.
First, only four of 25 have held ministerial level office before (Ruto himself, Musalia Mudavadi, Davis Chirchir, Simon Chelugui). It is not a cabinet with much experience in governing. Mudavadi's elevation to Prime Cabinet Secretary gives the government gravitas, but its not obvious he had much influence on his colleagues' selection and how much actual power he will wield remains to be seen, especially as his role and that of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua overlap significantly (just as Ruto and Fred Matangi's did before). Only one of Kenyatta's CS's (Chelugui) was retained and continuity was not seen as of value.
Second, Ruto did not attempt to poach from Azimio and did not reward any recent defectors to his side, seeming to focus on loyalty more than rewarding or winning more short-term support. Third, he appointed 7 women of 23 selected posts, fewer than expected and less than one third, and his choices were in some cases quite surprising.
Fourth, the ethno-regional calculus followed a familiar pattern, but with some oddities. Firstly, two of his nominees do not disclose their ethnicity directly - Zacharia Njeru was born in Nakuru slums and is probably Kikuyu or Meru; Rebecca Miano's origins are unknown. Putting them aside, it seems an ethnic calculus was followed much as most Kenyan cabinets have done, with the President's Kalenjin largest at five seats (not surprising), the core of his victory the Kikuyu next (four), then the Luhya three, Mijikenda, Meru and Kamba two, and Maasai, Somali, Mbeere, Luo and Gusii one each. But the Kipsigis Kalenjin have three and the Nandi none, which is odd to say the least. And the northern and southern pastoralist representation is not strong.
Of the 23 appointees, only three could be considered technocrats - Njuguna Ndungu (ex-CBK Governor) at the treasury; Miano (ex-KenGen CEO) and - generously - Chirchir (KPTC and IT). At least 13 are active politicians who stood for county level seats in 2022, most of who lost. Clearly promises were made and needed to be kept, to some at least. Other close political allies - like Josephat Nanok in Turkana and Ndindi Nyoro in Murang'a - were potential candidates but did not fit in, for unclear reasons. But it is a political cabinet above all else.
In terms of backgrounds, it is a cabinet of lawyers (Attorney General Justin Muturi, Kipchumba Murkomen, Moses Kuria, Kindiki Kithure, Rosalinda Tuya, Alice Wahome, Miano), communications experts (Alfred Mutua, Eliud Owalo, Kuria), self-made businessman (Ruto himself, Franklin Linturi, Njeru, Aisha Jumwa, Aden Duale, Chelugui) and procurement specialists (Chirchir, Susan Wafula). It is not (with exceptions) a cabinet of captains of industry or government insiders.
Finally, why we have Wafula, Njeru, Peninah Malonza and Florence Bore in the cabinet at all is a puzzling question. They appear to have few special skills or life experiences and all will struggle to make a mark at this level.
So, overall, a conservative cabinet (dominated by well known allies), a political cabinet (with few technocrats) and a curious one.
In a secret ballot, on 8 September 2022 ex-Minister and newly elected Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang'ula (candidate for Kenya Kwanza) was decisively elected as House Speaker, beating his Azimio opponent (and ex-Speaker) Kenneth Marende by 215 votes to 130 (62%-38%).
This was a significantly higher margin of victory that the status of the two alliances formally would suggest (roughly 184-165, including one additional "defection" to work with Kenya Kwanza by a KANU Rift Valley MP). Thirty more MPs voted for Wetang'ula than a party line would suggest, indicating either that Wetang'ula has strong personal support amongst ODM or DAP-K MPs in Western, or that other groups have made unpublished deals with William Ruto and allies.
Wetangula's candidacy required him to fail to take up his role as Bungoma Senator, resulting in the seat being declared vacant and a by-election. Unless internal battles between UDA and Ford-Kenya results in two competing candidates, this should be an easy victory for Kenya Kwanza.
For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not posting anything directly on the ongoing petition case at the Supreme Court, as its messy enough as it is. The evidence presented has to stand and win alone.
The Four Parliamentary by-elections on 29 August went well for Azimio and poorly for Kenya Kwanza.
As expected UDA won Rongai in Nakuru, ending the Moi "dynasty" with the defeat of the last family member Raymond, but lost both Pokot seats to KUP candidates (KUP is a local Pokot party but Azimio-affiliated so far) and as expected lost Kitui Rural to Wiper.
With one other typo corrected (Kilifi North I had wrongly recorded as ODM not UDA) this is the current stage of the parties. I've assigned all independents (who have declared a side now) to their relevant alliance and moved UDM, NAPK, one UPIA MP and MDG from Azimio to Kenya Kwanza to match their recent defections.
This gives KK a narrow majority of 17. Enough to win set pieces like the Speakership but not enough to govern reliably.
Five more updates including final senator and governor for Kiambu
Basically, an extremely good match. No presidential result exceeds 3% more than the maximum of the other results, except Mombasa (incomplete, governor cancelled), Laikipia (incomplete) and Bungoma (incomplete). There is no indication of material presidential vote inflation compared to the other elections.
Given its role as one of a dozen grounds for Azimio's contesting the 2022 presidential results, the four way match analysis proved quite popular, creating a second peak of interest last week and driving unique visits for the month over 10,000. Which was nice.
Some small updates once more, the main addition being Tana River senator and women rep results (complete) and some more partials.
Incremental changes only, with some partial women rep results and the complete Samburu senator results for the first time
ps this has hit diminishing returns - harder and harder to find anything new. Unless someone can uncover a reliable source, there is not much more I can do.
A few people may also have seen this little gem being peddled by the Azimio folks.
Its a silly lie of course - I'm not even on Twitter - but it does reveal a contempt for the truth which should be a warning to Kenyans. These guys just lie.
The latest news is that Charles Kibiru's results (Jubilee, Kirinyaga Governor) were skipped by the RO when announcing the governor result (probably because he had conceded) so were not transcribed by any of the media. I had a blank entry for him but no number - twitter has since provided a number which looks plausible and which would pretty much exactly fill the gap. Women Rep and Senator are still missing several smaller candidates so we don't have a proper four way match but the two way Pres to Gov is now good if the Kibiru number was good (which I think it is).
UPDATED 23 AUGUST with 6 amendments, including correcting the misattribution of the registered voters to the Homa Bay governor result (apologies). Updates are marked
Warning: This is still incomplete. Many of the results have never been published in full and this is a Frankenstein's monster, reconstructed from fragmentary media reports in the absence of any portal with the combined results.
Key: Red=too incomplete to publish. Yellow-won by KK. Blue won by Azimio. Grey-independent or deferred.
Where you have much lower senate or women representative results, its because I am still missing a few candidates' votes. To assess the presidential poll for integrity, you should compare against the maximum of the other three. If you think you have the complete results for any of the reds, please let me know
Generally the match is very good and much better than previous elections. The only case I have found which is clearly anomalous and relevant is Kirinyaga, where there genuinely seems to be 20,000 more presidential votes than in any of the other polls. At the moment I cannot think of a reasonable explanation for this.
Meru is because Tigania East presidential results are still unpublished anywhere I can trust
As this issue forms a small part of the Azimio petition, I think its important to get whatever facts we have out there.