The 27 November by-elections produced results much as I expected and predicted, with one notable difference. Both UDA candidates, expected to lose to their DP and DAP-K challengers, won narrow victories with higher turnouts than usual.

The three "broad based govenrnment" easy wins in Banissa, Baringo and Ugunja went as expected, Were (ODM) defeated Aroko (IND) as predicted in Kasipul and Kombe (ODM) returned to parliament as predicted in October in Magarini. In Malava, however, Ndakwa beat Pakyako by 1300 votes, and in the highest profile seat of all, Mbeere North, the combined opposition DP candidate (who I felt would be the clear winner) lost to UDA by only 494 on a huge turnout (for a by-election) of 62%. All appeared transparent in the IEBC station by station results, but an election petition has been raised on procedural grounds. 
 p.s the Kenya Moja candidates proved as suspected to be irrelevant. While their voice may be stronger in urban areas, vote patterns in rural areas continue to operate on more typical lines.

First by-elections since 2024 will be held 27 November 2025 by the newly reconstituted IEBC.
1 senate and 6 MP seats will be up for grabs (I will not try to cover MCAs)

​Result Prediction (based on what I know so far)

Senate
Baringo                Chemitei                             UDA 100%

National Assembly
Mbeere North     Karish                                  DP 75%, UDA 25%
Banissa               Hassan alias Barre             UDA 100%
Magarini              Kombe                                ODM 75%, DCP 25%
Malava                 Panyako/Ndakwa              DAP-K 60%, UDA 40%,
Ugunja                 Omondi                              ODM 100%
Kasipul                 Were/Aroko                       ODM 75%, Ind 25%
 
Will also be interested ton see whether any Kenya Moja candidates manage to make any impression (10% or more). I'm doubtful so far, but it’s a good test of whether the explicitly Gen Z non-ethnic concept will work operationally in Kenya’s political system. DCP is basically out of the race everywhere except Magarini, but DP is their proxy/ally in Mbeere N.
​

When it came to it, the impeachment vote against Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua on 8 October was decisive in the house, with 44 voting against, 281 in favour, 1 abstention and only 18 absent (many tactically).  Apart from his allies in Nairobi and Central Province, Gachagua's main defenders were the Wiper MPs, who had recently done a deal to back him, as a first step to a new political arangement as ODM moved closer to UDA.  Elsewhere, there were few ready to speak for him.

The first regional study for a while. Needed some further research and there may still be some gaps.

Fully refreshed review of Ukambani - last version was from 2021. This is now current, with maps, errors fixed and the 2022 election result included

 The history of Busia District (and County) as told through its elected representatives since 1957. 

Back with Number 16 in the series, one of the tougher ones: South Nyanza (today Homa Bay and Migori). A few learnings for me as I put this together. 

The latest instalment - No.15 - in the series covers the political history of Taita-Taveta District and County since 1957.

No.14 in the series; a deep dive into the history of Kakamega and (after 1989) Vihiga districts, from the perspective of their political representation. Including a basic analysis of the 2022 election results in the region.

Back with No.,13 in this series on the political history of the rural Mijikenda of Kilifi and Kwale. Long and complex and still a few loose ends.