1. Presidential Results (only)

22:00: 11 August 2022
THIS WILL BE MY LAST FOR TONIGHT

Media Reports of 34As
None of the three media counts have added any material number of new form 34As in last four hours. Clearly some kind of shutdown instruction has been given. Why?

34Bs:
We now have 140 genuine Form 34Bs uploaded and added into the results sheet. From the validated 34B results alone, Ruto is just in the lead.

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The ethno-regional summary is now complete. Though missing lots of seats, I don't think it will change fundamentally: the Luo were the only community who voted entirely for Odinga and the Kalenin the only (almost) entirely for Ruto.

Ruto is doing well in Nairobi - better than his candidates so far.

And the equal-area presentation of the presidential results in colourful form: bright blue is 100% raila, bright yellow 100% Ruto; all the other colours are grades between based on % of the vote.

We now have at least one result from every county except Tana River and Kwale.

My prediction:
No change. Ruto victory. Margin growing slightly, to 52-47% for Ruto.
This doesn't match the 34A counts well. Its still possible the media houses were counting in some pattern (in which case if/when they correct there will be a sharp shift) . If I'm correct, Raila should not move above 7m, while Ruto will continue to grow, if they restart counting.