22:00 11 August 2022
This sub-blog focuses on the Parliamentary races. We now have many in and the pattern is generally as predicted. KK swept Mount Kenya and the Kalenjin Rift and dominated the Bukusu vote, but Azimio overwhelmed them in Kajiado and Nairobi. Azimio dominant in Luo Nyanza and doing well in Western.
Nairobi: UDA did not do well. They lost a number of marginals but eventually honours were shared - 3 KK to 10 for Azimio so far. One independent.
Central: UDA winning every single seat including Gatundu South. Jubilee trounced. One independent.
Eastern: Machakos Town and Kibwezi West both won by MCC (but whose side are these candidates on?) Five seats won by Wiper. UDA has won two Meru and two Tharaka-Nithi seats. Jubilee won one in Imenti.
North-Eastern: Duale won. Tarbaj in Wajir also . First mandera win for ODM.
Coast: UDA won Garsen in Tana River. Wiper is 2/4 in Taita-Taveta. Jubilee won Lamu East. Kisauni for ODM as expected. First Kilifi results (for ODM).
Rift Valley: KANU won Samburu West and Tiaty. Kajiado MPs five of six for ODM. UDA taking all other Kalenjin and all Kikuyu dominated seats in the Rift, bar Bahati and Samuel Arama in Nakuru. In Narok UDA has won three to Jubilee's one with one independent. Kiunjuri (TSP) won in Laikipia
Western: Most seats going to ODM but Kenya Kwanza MPs winning Vihiga without most votes backing Ruto. FORD-Kenya dominating Bungoma. Teso South went to UDA.
Nyanza: Gusii areas showing stronger support for UDA candidates than for Ruto - 5 UDA winners now to seven Azimio. ODM winning every Luo seat by large margins. First Kuria seat to UDA.
My count of 286 contested constituency MP seats (excluding women reps for now) shows the alliances still neck and neck: coast and north east are main gaps and should favour Azimio.
As predicted, its going to be very close in parliament too, but Jubilee's collapse may just give UDA enough for an overall majority.
I marked the four deferred elections in West Pokot, Kitui and Nakuru as a Grey "D". Eldas in Wajir voted 11 August.