17:00 11 August SEMI-LIVE BLOG (red indicates new or updated material)
34As: 100% of form 34As (polling station results) are available online. Polling station result images are mostly clear and reliable when sampled.
34Bs: we now have 87+ real 34Bs (final constituency level totals). Some recorded on the site arent genuine.
As you can all see the main media portals for yourselves, totaling 34As, i'm going to focus on the 34B.
Nation: 1% lead for Ruto now,
Citizen: 0.5% for Raila
Standard: neck and neck
Rumours swirl that both sides have now manually added all the 34As so all know who has won.
Turnouts will end up around 66%, roughly the same level as 1992, 1997 and 2007.
With 99% of the form 34As now in and thousands of Kenyans sampling and adding them up themselves, including at least three public media parallel counts, there is very little anyone can do to adjust the presidential count now. Instead they are announcing their own count results which cannot unfortunately be believed.
But in the counts, its getting (typically) messy: (i use the old provinces as as well understood shorthand) Capturing these now allows us to compare them with the final results to see if the allegations manifested into anomalies in the final totals.
* Mathare: count stopped after allegations of ballot box stuffing. UDA candidate protested.
* Starehe: youth protest; tallying halted after official suspected to have sneaked in open ballot box.
* Dagoretti: Presiding officer found attempting to open a ballot box.
* Kirinyaga: Two ballot boxes allegedly smuggled into Governor count, UDA's Waiguru protesting
* Kikuyu (Kiambu): Release of final results stopped after MP candidate alleged irregularities in at least 3 polling stations
* Gichugu (Kirinyaga) ; Election Materials Allegedly Found In County Vehicle Outside Tallying Centre
* Makueni: Ndeti stormed a polling station after results transposition.
* Makueni: Police arrested two Presiding Officers in Mbooni over the loss of forms 37A and 39A.
* Isiolo: Former Governor Godana Doyo etc rejected the yet-to-be announced elections results on grounds of alleged irregularities.
* Eldas (Wajir): poll held the day after due to violence the night before
* Korane protesting alleged rigging for Garissa Governor
* Claims of voter bribery in Mandera.
* Kisauni (Mombasa) officials charged with failing to count the votes.
* Kilifi: 5 ballot boxes arriving in Kilifi North tallying centre unsealed, plus two more individual unsealed boxes from other Kilifi stations.
* Kilifi: Clerks charged with issuing multiple ballot papers to voters.
* Kilifi: ODM Leaders In Kilifi Storm County Tallying Centre, demand results announcement. UDA, PAA and ODM supporters fight at Malindi tallying centre over ballot boxes. Tallying of votes suspended.
* Matuga (Kwale): count was stopped for tampering. Two people arrested in possession of unmarked ballot papers and a KIEMS kit. Anti-riot police at Matuga tallying centre after protest demanding IEBC officials to stop tallying citing lack of confidence in the Returning Officer.
* Kacheliba (West Pokot) PO arrested for modifying Form 34A results.
* Kapenguria (West Pokot): boxes arrived for the count without security escort - UDA protesting
* Narok Governor: Complaints by ODM candidate about vote rigging. One PO arrested for posting wrong gubernatorial information. Another PO arrested for swapping votes between candidates in summary.
* Trans-Nzoia: RO has suspended counting for one MP seat.
* Bumula - fighting before and during polling.
* Kimilili (Bungoma): opponent's agent shot dead, MP Barasa (UDA) on the run from police.
* Khwisero (Kakamega): ANC candidate alleged rigging and his team attacked polling station and destroyed election materials
* Budalang'i (Busia): official accused of modifying results to favour a women rep.
* Bobasi (Kisii): count halted after four boxes found hidden full of marked ballots for one candidate. Officials arrested.
* Kuria West: count halted over similar claims.
* Suna West: Crowds fighting outside count, nasty videos circulating
* Rangwe: one killed in fighting, allegations of agents expelled and violence during election day.
* Bonchari (Kisii): one person shot during street clashes
* Kabondo-Kasipul: form 34b uploaded is unsigned and not an original.
* Homa Bay: police arrested five planning to disrupt tallying in Homa Bay town and Kabondo Kasipul.
Results from 34Bs: with 70+, its getting more accurate, but still only a third or less
Note the huge impact of ethnicity on Luo and Kalenjin areas (as expected). Kikuyu areas and Kamba areas are showing more balanced results with a strong ethnic based vote but not monolithic: more like 80-20. Ruto doing better in Gusii areas with more data. Turkana has been added as a distinct region and Emurura Dikirr has been moved from Maasailand into the greater Kalenjin reporting unit. Two Somali results very good for Ruto,
Next is the county breakdown of 34B presidential results on the "iso-suffragiem" model, where 100K registered voters = 1 square. Royal Blue indicates 100% for Raila, bright yellow 100% for Ruto, green a mix. Hopefully the idea is now clearer. The boxes are proportional to the number of registered voters in the county.
Adjusting for actual turnout and relative votes based on 88 real results, my model shows Ruto stretching his lead once all results are in, if they follow the ethno-regional patterns established so far (i.e Luo constituencies vote with a similar turnout and vote for Raila, Kalenjin for Ruto etc. IF. I don't understand how the media summaries of the 34As don't yet align with this - either something is fundamentally wrong or the media have been counting by county and there are more Ruto counties left to count than Raila. That will be a catastrophic mistake if true. Lets hope its something else (eg an error in my model).
Hey Charles, just want to say thanks for this. I’ve read your book on Kenya several times and you have done a great job of understanding the social economic and political context of the country.
Agree with the comment above
Great, and balanced, analysis. I come here to cool my heels after watching the whiplash that is the MSM.
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Thoughts on anything Kenya, mostly political.