Tana River is another small marginal county, where again the plausibility of the claimed NASA August 2017 Presidential results can be tested reasonably easily.
As with Lamu, I follow a three stage process – comparing the official and the alleged NASA results in the summary, looking at the alleged summary results in comparison with the other elections held on the same day, and then comparing the summary against the detail in the large attached file. The results are sadly the same. The validity of the detailed file is unknown, but the summary is certainly a fake.
The official IEBC Presidential results were based on the form 34Bs for the three constituencies in Tana River: Garsen, Galole and Bura. These were as below:
Again, there were arithmetical errors in the IEBC Bura and Garsen results, with the totals for all valid votes not adding up, but the differences were immaterial (200 votes or so). In summary, in the official IEBC results, 87,631 valid or invalid votes were cast (a 74% turnout), with Kenyatta receiving 40,155 (46%) and Odinga 45,067 (51%).
In the NASA Summary, 105,888 votes were cast, an 89% turnout, which would be unusually high for this area. Of these, 29,405 were for Uhuru (28%), 11,000 less. They claimed 75,347 for Raila (71%) a huge 30,000 votes more.
These results are again implausible when compared with the Parliamentary results (official) for the three constituencies, which showed a 76% turnout, 89,878 votes cast and for the gubernatorial elections, which showed a 76% turnout and 89,528 votes cast. The NASA result would require 13% of voters, 16,000 of them, to have voted for President and not for Parliament or the Governor (unless NASA claim that all the election results including the ones they won were rigged of course).
Comparing the NASA summary to the polling station detail they attached, which claims to be the original and truthful polling station results, we see again that the summary result is grossly falsified. The polling station results for the 307 polling stations added up for the two main candidates (possibly containing a few transcription errors) were completely different: 57,757 for Kenyatta and 24,851 for Odinga. I couldn’t believe this and rechecked it repeatedly, but the NASA detail results seem to show a huge Kenyatta win.
So, in summary:
Source Kenyatta Odinga
IEBC 40,155 45,067
NASA Detail 57,757 24,851
NASA summary 29,405 75,347
In conclusion, the NASA polling station data bears no relationship to the NASA summary (or the IEBC results), but it shows that Kenyatta decisively won the election there, while the NASA summary result has the situation reversed. Again, it seems, the summary is a clumsy fake.
Thoughts on anything Kenya, mostly political.