12:00 12 August
First six results as verified by Chebukati were the same as the published 34Bs. So more likely that all those with published 34Bs will be similar (but we shall see).
Nation has slowly restarted their 34A reporting. We also now have Google reporting from Reuters offering their own tally (which should be similar to my 34B summation but looks like its ahead.
On the Nairobi results, I too was surprised but Ruto did better than his candidates, and I think the Luo 100% + Kamba 75% + Luhya 65% outweighed the Kikuyu 80% vote for UDA. More to do to confirm.
Also check out https://www.kenyaelection.org/result/PR/ (derived from Form 34B) - 7.45am
All running as predicted at the moment (Ruto 51-52% to Odinga 48-49%) , absent any evidence as yet that there are any material issues with the 34As and Bs as the verification proceed. They all look visually good but that's no proof. we have to rely on the IEBC to check. If such integrities are found, I will highlight.
I think your opinions are credible in light of the emerging results. One puzzling thing is UDA's poor performance in Nairobi. Just maybe zoning by Azimio worked and UDA's visibility was not planned well.
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Thoughts on anything Kenya, mostly political.