Presidential Update

Good morning all.

A quick reminder for everyone, there have been three counting processes

1. Scanned 34As -> online -> media count them and stop on Thursday afternoon when they realise who has won
2. Scanned 34Bs unverified -> online. My count, also Reuters count. Still going but very slow.
3. 34Bs verified against 34As and typographic errors removed -> the official IEBC count at Bomas and the only one which can be used to declare a winner

But so far, no material differences between unverified and verified 34Bs, so my calculations currently stand.

Where I have the official IEBC count, I have reapplied their changes to my unverified count.

​I will now
(1) capture any new scanned 34bs which came into the portal overnight night (DONE) then
(2) apply the corrections IEBC have made to my records.

In the last 12 hours only TWO of the missing 34B scans have come in. Not great. No reason of any sort has yet been given publicly for what has happened to the remaining 19 entirely missing. The six with image truncation issues (so parts of the results are missing) will presumably be fixed in the Bomas verification process, but they can't verify what they don't have.

These are the missing 34Bs by county
DIASPORA
NAIROBI STAREHE
NAIROBI EMBAKASI EAST
NAIROBI EMBAKASI SOUTH
MANDERA MANDERA SOUTH
WAJIR WAJIR SOUTH
GARISSA LAGDERA
GARISSA DADAAB
GARISSA FAFI
MOMBASA MVITA
KAJIADO KAJIADO EAST
NAROK NAROK SOUTH
NAROK KILGORIS
WEST POKOT KACHELIBA
BUNGOMA TONGAREN
VIHIGA LUANDA
VIHIGA SABATIA
KISUMU NYAKACH
KISII BOMACHOGE BORABU
NYAMIRA BORABU

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So, before cross referencing 34b scans vs 34B finals, the situation is as above: 650K ahead for Ruto still. Only two new results and both were 50-50.

On turnouts, it seems Mombasa turnouts were indeed heavily depressed as was alleged by Azimio due to the deferment of the gubernatorial elections (43% turnout only so far with one seat missing). The Kakamega results less so (60% turnout). I imagine this could be part of a future Azimio petition.

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The image showing where the votes came from for the two candidates by constituency i've updated and also reversed the sequence to show Azimio first in blue, as I noted that visually it makes a difference. Ill alternate now to avoid visual bias.

Finally for now, my personal creation: the "equal-vote" county map, 1 box is 100,000 registered voters. All from 34Bs