Presidential Update

14/8/2022

First material 34B difference found - in Bonchari in Kisii. Looks as if one polling station was entirely omitted in the unverified 34B, and has now been included in the official results. Benefitted Odinga by about 500 votes overall. So far i've verified 38 and the other 37 are fine.

Tongaren (Bungoma) and Luanda (Vihiga) have been verified when I didn't see the 34Bs online at all. So maybe I missed them. But I've added them to the final total anyway and let's look for the 34Bs later. For West Mugirango (Nyamira) the scanned form was truncated, now we have the verified finals.

That gives us enough new data to be worth updating: 500K lead for Ruto. 1.15 m votes to go (estimated). Rails has to get 72% of the remaining vote. Unlikely but impossible.

3 Comments

Simon makondee

14/8/2022 07:01:40

Charles

You blog is always intriguing and makes data sound like music.

14/8/2022 07:50:26

Great job - what do you make of the following discrepancies in the portal -
a. Overnight on 34As - Kiambu and Mombasa counties each have gone from 100% to having 1 station each missing.....
b. 34As - Kakamega (3 missing), Nandi (1 missing), Tana River (1 missing) - but in 34Bs they are showing 100% - are the counties allowed to total 34Bs without electronically submitted 34As ?

Side note - Nairobi County just declared Governor, Senator & Womens Rep with all missing polling stations. While not material, it's be interesting to see if this affected the presidential tallying.... let's see.....

Incidentally it might be worth putting a percentage error rate for the discrepancies you have found till now for ease of the layman to gauge materiality - I suspect it'll be a surprisingly low number......

Thank you again for this public service - this is very illuminating.

Charles

15/8/2022 12:42:09

Sorry DP, just saw this. too late for today but in due course...

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