The Shape of the New Assembly
Latest predictions still show a parliament with no overall majority, though I'm sure this will shift. This is based on further reviews of candidate lists and regional/county polls, plus a few broader trends. Azimio is now slightly the larger coalition by 142-137, mainly due to my further downgrading ANC's performance in western and UDA's in north-eastern.
The two coalitions have not succeeded in putting up candidates in much of their opponents' heartlands. Setting aside true independent candidates and non-aligned parties (who could still have secret deals), 39 of 290 constituency seats (13%) have already been conceded, as there is no party candidate from the other coalition standing.
Azimio candidates (or independents) have already won 23 seats:
My best guess as to the share of the National Assembly (349 seats in total) between the parties is now as follows
The data for Women Representatives isn't yet complete, so you see some greys on the Azimio side far right which will probably match where I've placed them but its not yet confirmed. "n" is nominated MPs, appointed from party lists in proportion to the number of seats obtained.
UDA will certainly be the largest party, barring an extraordinary upset, and will dominate its smaller coalition partners. Azimio will be a six-way coalition but dominated by ODM. Jubilee's chances of the 30+ seats I've predicted depend on their performance in Mount Kenya (at best 10 seats) and the north and north east (circa 7). Elsewhere the party has few strong candidates and only patchy chances of success (for example in Taita-Taveta, Narok, Kisii). They have few safe seats, so will be the big "swing" variable in the house - a candidate vote just 5-10% smaller than I've predicted could leave them with few to no Mount Kenya seats and Kenya Kwanza with a working majority.
But for now, Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper MPs - in Azimio but with serious reservations - could hold the balance of power.
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Thoughts on anything Kenya, mostly political.