Another 5 34Bs have come in 1 Kilifi 1 Meru 1 Migori 2 Wajir. Results: 800K lead for Ruto, 5.5% ahead. 1.7 million est. still to tally. Raila needs 73% of the remaining 34Bs to win IF the 34Bs are valid. A question we haven't addressed.
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Another 10 34Bs have been uploaded, which is good news as they seemed to slow down.
2 Bungoma 1 Embu 1 Kiambu 1 Kisii 1 Mandera 1 Meru 2 Nairobi 1 Taita Taveta also, the correct Kamukunji has now been uploaded. Kabete is an unsigned non-standard form. but Odinga did better than average there Voi 34B is truncated - last page only, useless. So, we are at 258 - 7 total reported by IEBC but there but actually unusuable. so 251/290=87% Result: Ruto has stretched lead to 750K (6%). There are 39 seats undeclared or unusable (plus diaspora), with about 3m registered voters still. With a 65% turnout, that suggests we don't have around 1.9 m votes. Too big to make any declaration still but to win Raila would have to win 1.3m of the remaining votes (68%). [corrected calculation] Nearly complete, i'm only missing four - which by this point indicates significant issues if they haven't been announced. Narok and Nairobi are very close and contested. Kericho and Kiambu hsould be easy UDA so I'm not sure why I can't find them.
Summary : Azimio 21 Kenya Kwanza 20 Independent 2 Too close 2 Deferred 2 This is the first step, just to compare who won in each of the contests in each county Iv adde MPs and am now starting on Women Rep to make a five way match. Already we can see a lot more cross-ticket choices, which is in my view a positive thing. Isiolo is odd in that it voted for Ruto presidentially but Azimio in all the other races. Needs checking. Samburu allegedly did the opposite - voted Raila in the presidency but UDA everywhere else. Needs Checking equally. Once we have actual results for the downballot races including all candidates (which are very hard to get), we can compare the total votes cast in each election looking for outliers. Its almost impossible to rig all elections equally (and usually pointless), so we are looking for cases where the total number of votes cast differs in one contest from the others by a material margin - 3% and 5% have been suggested for Kenya (based on the reality that few people really vote for one but not the rest, but quite a number of people put 1 or more ballots in the wong boxes).
First update this morning with the 34Bs which came in overnight. Rumour control: there were 14 more: 2 Embu 1 Garissa 1 Homa Bay 1 Kilifi 1 Kisii 1 Kwale 1 Lamu 1 Mandera 1 Migori 1 Nyandarua 2 Trans-Nzoia 1 West Pokot 249 forms are included in my analysis from the full 290 (of which 5 are illegible, so 244, or 84%). Overall results; Ruto still 700K ahead and 5% points clear. There are overall around 2.5 million votes left unreported (assuming the missing seats have similar 65% turnouts). To win, Odinga would require 1.6 million or 64% of the remaining votes. Turnout: mostly reasonable. You are looking for sinuous shapes. Sudden discontinuities between constituencies of a similar nature indicate oddities to be investigated. Will be clearer when we fill some gaps. The equal vote (1 box, 100,000 voters) county model: Mandera is anomalous for Azimio. Ethno regional results: stable now as we are in the endgame. Where the votes came from: again, the picture is becoming clearer. Ruto's votes came predominantly from Kalenjin, Kikuyu, Embu, Meru, Tharaka, Mbeere, Bukusu, Kuria constituencies, but with substantial contributions from Kamba, Kisii, other Luhya and Mijikenda. Odinga's votes came from the Luo, Kamba, non-Bukusu Luhya, Gusii, and parts of the Coast.
Just an update on the MPs picture...still some gaps but the picture is filling out And in seats in the house (constituency MPs only). Tiny Azimio lead
UPDATED 21:45 The following currently uploaded forms have issues with them Roysambu (unsigned, non standard) KK WIN Kamukunji (wrong form) Unknown Tigania Est (corrupted) Unknown Buuri (non-Standard form) KK WIN Moyale (non-standard) KK WIN Kilifi North (corrupted) Unknown Turkana north (odd looking form) AZIMIO WIN Nakuru Town East (non-standard form) KK WIN Narok West (half return) UNKNOWN Likuyani (wrong template form used) AZIMIO WIN Ndhiwa (form illegible) AZIMIO WIN Suba South (form corrupted) AZIMIO WIN Bonchari (non-standard form) AZIMIO WIN West Mugirango (no totals) Unknown so 5 pro-Azimio, 4 pro-KK and 5 unknown. Overall: 235/290 (in reality 230 as the unknowns above I have not included) 7% lead for Ruto (circa 800K). Plenty more small Azimio to come in, but they are mostly small. Turnout: no great surprises on first view. Urban turnouts lower but not new. Some coast turnouts poor. My "Index of love" is more useful as it shows who they turned out for (the two main candidates) This is an important addition: a version with absolute numbers so the sheer scale of each constituency can be seen (main 2 candidates only again)
Moving toward the end now... Other are ahead of me on the composition of the new assembly. very close...
First rough comparison of who won in each county, Presidential, Governor, Senator.
Senator data part way. ? for presidential means data is incomplete and the gap is so big it could change the result. 20:00 Now 208 captured and analysed. of which half a dozen are invalid as illegible and two or three are on unusual forms. Kamukunji's is the parliamentary race. Overall: Ruto ahead by 180K but as correctly pointed out, there are more Azimio constituencies to report their 34Bs than KK, so it's theoretically possible they could still win (though getting less likely). Ethno-regional. Not much change. Turnout: Iso Suffragiem Colour Chart: Index of love: (what % of reg voters voted for their guy.
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March 2024
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