Good morning all. A quick reminder for everyone, there have been three counting processes
Where I have the official IEBC count, I have reapplied their changes to my unverified count. I will now (1) capture any new scanned 34bs which came into the portal overnight night (DONE) then (2) apply the corrections IEBC have made to my records. In the last 12 hours only TWO of the missing 34B scans have come in. Not great. No reason of any sort has yet been given publicly for what has happened to the remaining 19 entirely missing. The six with image truncation issues (so parts of the results are missing) will presumably be fixed in the Bomas verification process, but they can't verify what they don't have. These are the missing 34Bs by county DIASPORA NAIROBI STAREHE NAIROBI EMBAKASI EAST NAIROBI EMBAKASI SOUTH MANDERA MANDERA SOUTH WAJIR WAJIR SOUTH GARISSA LAGDERA GARISSA DADAAB GARISSA FAFI MOMBASA MVITA KAJIADO KAJIADO EAST NAROK NAROK SOUTH NAROK KILGORIS WEST POKOT KACHELIBA BUNGOMA TONGAREN VIHIGA LUANDA VIHIGA SABATIA KISUMU NYAKACH KISII BOMACHOGE BORABU NYAMIRA BORABU So, before cross referencing 34b scans vs 34B finals, the situation is as above: 650K ahead for Ruto still. Only two new results and both were 50-50. On turnouts, it seems Mombasa turnouts were indeed heavily depressed as was alleged by Azimio due to the deferment of the gubernatorial elections (43% turnout only so far with one seat missing). The Kakamega results less so (60% turnout). I imagine this could be part of a future Azimio petition. The image showing where the votes came from for the two candidates by constituency i've updated and also reversed the sequence to show Azimio first in blue, as I noted that visually it makes a difference. Ill alternate now to avoid visual bias.
Finally for now, my personal creation: the "equal-vote" county map, 1 box is 100,000 registered voters. All from 34Bs
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3 more scans up
1 Home Bay 1 Narok 1 Tana River Result: Ruto 520 K ahead. Big win for Azimio in Narok North. 1.5 m to tally. Raila needs 67% of remainder to win. the majority of the missing 34Bs are in Odinga areas, so the gap will narrow. So far none of the 34Bs validated by IEBC that I've checked have differed materially from the originals -mostly minor changes to spoilt votes. Four more in the last hour or so. Very slow. 267 uploaded, 260 of which are valid. 89% complete
so far the verification has not changed any 34B materially -there have been tiny changes in some spoilt ballot numbers but everything else is identical. 31 missing of which 7 are there, but have mistakes making them unable. Still 680K lead for Ruto (5%). 1.7 million votes est left to tally. Raila need 71% or better of the remainder to win, assuming the 34Bs stand up as summaries of the 34As - as so far they have. Another 5 34Bs have come in 1 Kilifi 1 Meru 1 Migori 2 Wajir. Results: 800K lead for Ruto, 5.5% ahead. 1.7 million est. still to tally. Raila needs 73% of the remaining 34Bs to win IF the 34Bs are valid. A question we haven't addressed. Another 10 34Bs have been uploaded, which is good news as they seemed to slow down.
2 Bungoma 1 Embu 1 Kiambu 1 Kisii 1 Mandera 1 Meru 2 Nairobi 1 Taita Taveta also, the correct Kamukunji has now been uploaded. Kabete is an unsigned non-standard form. but Odinga did better than average there Voi 34B is truncated - last page only, useless. So, we are at 258 - 7 total reported by IEBC but there but actually unusuable. so 251/290=87% Result: Ruto has stretched lead to 750K (6%). There are 39 seats undeclared or unusable (plus diaspora), with about 3m registered voters still. With a 65% turnout, that suggests we don't have around 1.9 m votes. Too big to make any declaration still but to win Raila would have to win 1.3m of the remaining votes (68%). [corrected calculation] Nearly complete, i'm only missing four - which by this point indicates significant issues if they haven't been announced. Narok and Nairobi are very close and contested. Kericho and Kiambu hsould be easy UDA so I'm not sure why I can't find them.
Summary : Azimio 21 Kenya Kwanza 20 Independent 2 Too close 2 Deferred 2 This is the first step, just to compare who won in each of the contests in each county Iv adde MPs and am now starting on Women Rep to make a five way match. Already we can see a lot more cross-ticket choices, which is in my view a positive thing. Isiolo is odd in that it voted for Ruto presidentially but Azimio in all the other races. Needs checking. Samburu allegedly did the opposite - voted Raila in the presidency but UDA everywhere else. Needs Checking equally. Once we have actual results for the downballot races including all candidates (which are very hard to get), we can compare the total votes cast in each election looking for outliers. Its almost impossible to rig all elections equally (and usually pointless), so we are looking for cases where the total number of votes cast differs in one contest from the others by a material margin - 3% and 5% have been suggested for Kenya (based on the reality that few people really vote for one but not the rest, but quite a number of people put 1 or more ballots in the wong boxes).
First update this morning with the 34Bs which came in overnight. Rumour control: there were 14 more: 2 Embu 1 Garissa 1 Homa Bay 1 Kilifi 1 Kisii 1 Kwale 1 Lamu 1 Mandera 1 Migori 1 Nyandarua 2 Trans-Nzoia 1 West Pokot 249 forms are included in my analysis from the full 290 (of which 5 are illegible, so 244, or 84%). Overall results; Ruto still 700K ahead and 5% points clear. There are overall around 2.5 million votes left unreported (assuming the missing seats have similar 65% turnouts). To win, Odinga would require 1.6 million or 64% of the remaining votes. Turnout: mostly reasonable. You are looking for sinuous shapes. Sudden discontinuities between constituencies of a similar nature indicate oddities to be investigated. Will be clearer when we fill some gaps. The equal vote (1 box, 100,000 voters) county model: Mandera is anomalous for Azimio. Ethno regional results: stable now as we are in the endgame. Where the votes came from: again, the picture is becoming clearer. Ruto's votes came predominantly from Kalenjin, Kikuyu, Embu, Meru, Tharaka, Mbeere, Bukusu, Kuria constituencies, but with substantial contributions from Kamba, Kisii, other Luhya and Mijikenda. Odinga's votes came from the Luo, Kamba, non-Bukusu Luhya, Gusii, and parts of the Coast.
Just an update on the MPs picture...still some gaps but the picture is filling out And in seats in the house (constituency MPs only). Tiny Azimio lead
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March 2024
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