Good morning all. We now have the final Gubernatorial result for Narok, as predicted a close UDA win. This leaves KK 22 to Azimio 21, with two independents and two to fill. My eve of poll prediction (scroll far down) was this: (please ignore the second "key" on the right) Overall I'm feeling pretty good. Excluding the two deferrals and Isiolo which i could not predict, I got 38/44 correct. Independents won two from the local preferred alliances, so there were four where a different alliance won from my prediction.
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Lots of news and a new prediction 1) Of the remaining verifications (where we know the original vote), nearly 2/3 are in areas where Raila performed better (65-40). Since Ruto is slightly ahead, this is statistically unlikely to have happened accidentally. It suggests pro-Raila seat verifications are being held back deliberately. 2) Kajiado East is finally in. Odinga win 2-1. 3) Kilgoris (Narok) is finally in . Ruto win. 4) Kacheliba (West Pokot) is finally in. Ruto win. 5) Wajir South is finally in.Raila narrow win 6) Voi finally in also. 2-1 Raila victory Now only 8 entirely missing results and three where the form was corrupted: STAREHE TIGANIA EAST LAGDERA DADAAB FAFI KILIFI NORTH NAROK SOUTH NAROK WEST SABATIA NYAKACH BORABU Ruto is 340K ahead, 50.9% to 48.4% Which is very close to unofficial counts from the 34Bs from both alliances which are circulating round social media. Raila now need 82% of the remaining vote IF there is no playing around with the 34Bs. Not yet impossible but increasingly unlikely. Its key now to watch for sudden increases in the Raila vote in their heartlands in Nyanza (between the scanned 34B and the verified 34Bs). Turnout still looks reasonable, no huge spikes. But Juja with those extra 10,000 votes is a bit high, Mandera South and Tarbaj look odd. Taveta is against the run of the region too. All four marked in red below.
The summary map, all done bar one (Turkana West !). Thanks for corrections to earlier version. Its a real party patchwork NO OVERALL CONTROL I'Ve now added the women reps as well, which Kenya Kwanza won 24-20.
Summary: Exactly as predicted on the of poll NO OVERALL CONTROL. The two alliances are exactly neck and neck with 161 seats each (and 1 missing) Control will depend on influencing independents and the four delayed races. 2 will probably go to Azimio and two to KK. We are moving into the endgame now. The vast majority of the 34Bs have been validated and announced, but the whereabouts of 13 constituency 34B returns five days after the polls closed is still unexplained. No new 34 scans have been uploaded in five hours except for the tiny Diaspora vote. Meanwhile i've 166 checked scan versus final for differences, and there has been some news: Cherangani (Trans-Nzoia) verification added 5000 votes to Ruto's total Juja (Kiambu) increased Raila's total from 23,200 (on the form ) to 32,197, a huge 9000 increase. This give Juja the highest turnout in the region which is a little concerning late in the day. Needs checking please Bomas. Mvita 34B has been loaded in place of Kisauni 34b in the portal. We didnt have Kisauni (but do now in the verification), and we also have Mvita.
Status 350K ahead for Ruto, 48.3% to 51%. Raila needs 72% of the remaining (estd) votes to win. Bomachoge Borabu has now been verified without the 34B being uploaded (4th case). Suba South was illegible and now corrected. Kandara 34B verification reduced the Ruto vote by 1000. Mandera South is finally in on the portal.
Result: Ruto lead reduced to 400K. Raila need 74% of the remaining 850K votes to win Embakasi West is up on the portal. We now have 274 results in, of which 5 have issues, and around 1/3 of which have been formally verified.
Status: 1 million votes (est) to go, Ruto leading by 470K. Raila needs 72% of the remaining votes to win. However the majority of seats with missing 34B scans are pro-Azimio. Some may turn up in the verifications from Bomas before the scan goes up. We now have nearly all the results for county level posts and nearly all the presidentials and MPs results, so the 5-way match summary is almost complete. Notes:
1. Sakaja (Nairobi) victory a personal one. But there will undoubtedly be an immediate petition against his election as unqualified. 2. khalwales victory in Kakamega similar. 3. Four independents elected. 4. Only Samburu and Isiolo show a notable difference between the presidential winners and the rest of the polls. Any level 2 (actual numbers) five way match should start with these two. With Sakaja's victory in Nairobi we only have Narok left. reports earlier today were that Nttu had won and he is listed on the nation front page as a winner but I also see announcements that the completion of the count has been postponed for security reasons. this gives us: So, neck and neck, but as Kakamega and probably Mombasa will still go Azimio, and Mwadime is likely to be pro-Azimio as well, they will have 24, while Nark will probably go to KK and Mwangaza in Meru will probably align with KK giving them 23. So, leadership of the Council of Governors will depend on Mombasa. If Ruto wins, given the solid showing he put up in Mombasa presidentials, it is not impossible they could take it.
Second difference, Likuyani (Kakamega) one polling station missing from the 34B total, so plus 200 votes for Raila. Mavoko (Machakos) - rejected ballots reduced from 992 to 291 which is a curious change but has no effect. Unfortunately, there are two constituencies where the four candidate's votes do not add up to the total in the published IEBC result. Differences are trivial but the fact that they exist at all means care is needed (unless the media house misreported or the person misspoke, also possible). Example (from Standard): Summary: Ruto exactly 500K ahead IEBC official: heading in the same direction
First material 34B difference found - in Bonchari in Kisii. Looks as if one polling station was entirely omitted in the unverified 34B, and has now been included in the official results. Benefitted Odinga by about 500 votes overall. So far i've verified 38 and the other 37 are fine.
Tongaren (Bungoma) and Luanda (Vihiga) have been verified when I didn't see the 34Bs online at all. So maybe I missed them. But I've added them to the final total anyway and let's look for the 34Bs later. For West Mugirango (Nyamira) the scanned form was truncated, now we have the verified finals. That gives us enough new data to be worth updating: 500K lead for Ruto. 1.15 m votes to go (estimated). Rails has to get 72% of the remaining vote. Unlikely but impossible. |
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