Correction: one ODM Tana River seat was wrongly attributed to UDA in the heat of the moment. Below is the final state of the house after the 12 nominated MP slots were allocated proportional to party strength. There is one change as I had an error in the women rep numbers earlier. this is before the poaching started Comparing my eve of poll prediction with the final (with one presentation change to visually separate the county Women Representatives from the constituency MPs as it was difficult to keep track otherwise): Most predictions were pretty spot on. Jubilee indeed collapsed across much of ex-Central Province (which I had predicted but not fully taken into account) but ODM did slightly better to compensate. This left the two alliances balanced (with Azimio four ahead and four elections delayed) and the four true independent constituency MPs and one true independent woman representative nominally holding the balance of power (for a day or so, before KK started to "acquire" them).
Since that time UDM has defected en masse, and KK has also brought on board most independents and a couple of individual Azimio MPs, giving them a narrow - too narrow - majority of circa 19.
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The final 5-way level 1 match (i.e. comparing who won in each contest). Samburu and Isiolo are the only outliers presidentially, one in each direction
I'm now working on a four-way match report at the more detailed level (minus the MPs for now), but it will be very incomplete as the results for the down-ballot races released by the media are often missing smaller candidates and there are no published official results on a portal. Details for the record: 1) Official 34C results including - presumably - reconciliations of every constituency 34A set vs 34B by IEBC staff and including all 291 results: 2) My independent count based first on scanned 34Bs and then amended when IEBC announced corrected (verified) versions. I captured the delta between the two each time for posterity. That count ended around 5pm when I concluded that Ruto's margin exceeded the remaining votes. At the time I had 38 unverified results, including 2 where the 34B was corrupted and one where it was entirely missing (Fafi). Fafi has since arrived in the portal and I have incorporated (unverified) but the 34Bs for Tigania East and Kilifi North remain unusable, so I still have no results for them: As you can see, the differences are tiny.
So, in summary, the 34C totals are consistent with the 34Bs as available on the portal and then as announced as final following checking and tidying up during the IEBC Staff and agent verification. So, if there is a problem with the results being somehow "fake", it's not a problem with the IT subtotal not matching the forms, its a problem with the uploaded form 34As and 34Bs and with the entire process of results verification of the physical forms by the IEBC staff and agents. As requested, a list of all the winners and their parties in the 47 * 3 county posts, coloured by alliance.
(updated - one error found and fixed in Kilifi) William Ruto has been duly elected as Kenya's Fifth president. The situation in Bomas deteriorated rapidly late afternoon. on live TV, there were physical attacks on two "loyal"commissioners. Taking the podium, Wafula Chebukati reported some of his IEBC staff had been arrested. But Chebukati proceeded to declare, stressing his constitutional independence against intimidation. Results as read: Raila Odinga 6,942,930 (48.85%), met the national distribution of support roles William Ruto 7,176,141 (50.49%), met the national distribution of support rules Mwaure 31,987 (0.23%) Wajackoyah 61,969 (0.44%) "I Wafula Chebukati...hereby declares that Ruto William Samoei ... has been duly elected as the president of the Republic of Kenya". He won 50.5% to 48.8%, 173K votes and 1.6% ahead. My eve-of-poll prediction (scroll well down) was 51-52% for Ruto to 48-49% for Raila so - though it is irrelevant already - Im feeling like my year of preparation work was worth it. Ruto: "There is no room for vengeance, there is no room to look back....we must close ranks and work together". "It is God who has brought us this victory." When we get the remaining constituency presidential results I will update all the analysis one more time. But here is the regional analysis minus those 3 and the last 40 verifications Turnout: a couple of anomalies and clear vote suppression in Mombasa due to the delay to the gubernatorial election. but on the whole it looks good.
The announcement of the winner was due at 1, then 3, and 5 pm just passed. The mood of the room in Bomas has changed from smiles to frowns and sadness, though everyone is staying. The rumour is that the Azimio team are refusing to accept or sign the form 34C confirming their defeat, and that some IEBC commissioners are backing them (though why is unknown). This is very serious if true. Four commissioners (all new 'handshake era" appointees) just alleged at Serena Hotel that there is something wrong ("opaque") in the final presidential tally though they have not been able to explain what has happened. Three commissioners including Chebukati are supportive of announcing Ruto's victory. It seems Chebukati was coming out to announce the results, but had to or was forced to stop.
Meanwhile three more results just emerged on the 34B scan portal, 2 for Narok (Ruto wins) and one Nyamira (Odinga win), with no obvious problems, leaving only one seat missing and two illegible. This means that subject to verification (which presumably has happened behind the scenes but is not announced), Ruto has passed the point that he cannot lose. He is 244K ahead with 227K votes uncounted. My numbers are: I predicted no overall control, but no-one could have predicted a 164-164 split (that's allocating independents who left a party before or after the primaries back to the party they came on). The five true independents hold the balance of power. Whichever president wins will need a stable majority to govern, so is likely to make an offer to a smaller party from the losing side. My money is on Ruto and Musyoka.
Dear all, My Kenya blog mostly trundles on with few postings and few readers, as I only post when i have something to say and some reason to say it. With the election itself and the sometimes controversial analyses and predictions I made, it did increase sharply. During the period of confusion as results first started to come out and no-one fully knew what was happening, there were lots of people reading. Readership peaked on 10 August with 1600 unique visitors. in demographics, there's not much to see but Google was the number one source by a long way, while Twitter was no.2 and Facebook no.3.
Át the end of today I'll be shutting down the online blog and reverting to ad hoc and when needed. I will post a full analysis of all the results here in due course and then work on the five way match as a tool to detect obvious anomalies, but the current results available for down ballot races are too incomplete to make it practical. IEBC: we need a portal for the other elections results. Waiting for the presidentials ! 13:00 no expected announcement, deferred to 15:00.
11:35 Announcement asked attendees to shift seats round to make space for presidential candidates to join Overnight verification results all added...251 of 291 34Bs now verified and published (media says 258 are out but I can't find them). The other 7 are not on the nation or star web blogs.
Five anomalies found only in recent 34B verifications, very good match overall. 1. In Kuria East (Migori) the vote for Raila has reduced from 12,031 to 7031 in the Nation blog report but not the Star. I consider that a typo so have NOT included it and have left Raila at 12K. 2. Mandera South (Mandera) has seen the odinga vote reduced by 1200. Which seems positive as the turnout was extremely high before and frankly still remains high. 3. Saboti (Trans-Nzoia) saw 2000-3000 increases for both parties in the final verification. 4. Sabatia (Vihiga) saw 2600 more for Raila and 9600 more for Ruto. Which makes better sense as the turnout was very low before and the result odd. 5. Gichugu (Kirinyaga) Ruto's vote rose by 10,000 from 55,714 to 65,718 according to the Nation blog last night. That's an impossibly high turnout. Star has 56018 so ive used that. Note the Nation blog report for Wajir West is actually for Wajir East and for Samburu West is actually for Samburu East. Diaspora now added as correct form now recorded. Tiny. Dadaab (Garissa) arrived overnight in the verifications. 20-1 for Raila and a high turnout is a little concerning but it's not impossible. Lagdera (Garissa) was missing from the scanned 34Bs but has finally arrived with verification. 5-1 win for Raila but tiny. Turnout looks ok. Starehe (Nairobi) has finally arrived and been verified (the scan was only partial). This was key as the largest missing seat. 46K Odinga to 43 K Ruto. Turnout reasonable. Vihiga has also come in on the 34B portal overnight. Slightly pro-Raila, low turnout. and finally Nyakach (the last Kisumu) has arrived, with a huge victory for Raila but no surprise. UPDATED: Ruto is 253 K ahead with 250K (estd) votes to go... 7 m to 6.8 m. A 1.8% margin of 50.6% to 48.8% without the six missing seats and without the 40 verifications. Missing for me: MERU TIGANIA EAST GARISSA FAFI KILIFI KILIFI NORTH NAROK NAROK SOUTH NAROK NAROK WEST NYAMIRA BORABU. |
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March 2024
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