William Ruto has been duly elected as Kenya's Fifth president.
The situation in Bomas deteriorated rapidly late afternoon. on live TV, there were physical attacks on two "loyal"commissioners. Taking the podium, Wafula Chebukati reported some of his IEBC staff had been arrested. But Chebukati proceeded to declare, stressing his constitutional independence against intimidation.
Results as read:
Raila Odinga 6,942,930 (48.85%), met the national distribution of support roles
William Ruto 7,176,141 (50.49%), met the national distribution of support rules
Mwaure 31,987 (0.23%)
Wajackoyah 61,969 (0.44%)
"I Wafula Chebukati...hereby declares that Ruto William Samoei ... has been duly elected as the president of the Republic of Kenya".
He won 50.5% to 48.8%, 173K votes and 1.6% ahead.
My eve-of-poll prediction (scroll well down) was 51-52% for Ruto to 48-49% for Raila so - though it is irrelevant already - Im feeling like my year of preparation work was worth it.
Ruto: "There is no room for vengeance, there is no room to look back....we must close ranks and work together". "It is God who has brought us this victory."
When we get the remaining constituency presidential results I will update all the analysis one more time. But here is the regional analysis minus those 3 and the last 40 verifications
Turnout: a couple of anomalies and clear vote suppression in Mombasa due to the delay to the gubernatorial election. but on the whole it looks good.
The announcement of the winner was due at 1, then 3, and 5 pm just passed. The mood of the room in Bomas has changed from smiles to frowns and sadness, though everyone is staying. The rumour is that the Azimio team are refusing to accept or sign the form 34C confirming their defeat, and that some IEBC commissioners are backing them (though why is unknown). This is very serious if true. Four commissioners (all new 'handshake era" appointees) just alleged at Serena Hotel that there is something wrong ("opaque") in the final presidential tally though they have not been able to explain what has happened. Three commissioners including Chebukati are supportive of announcing Ruto's victory. It seems Chebukati was coming out to announce the results, but had to or was forced to stop.
Meanwhile three more results just emerged on the 34B scan portal, 2 for Narok (Ruto wins) and one Nyamira (Odinga win), with no obvious problems, leaving only one seat missing and two illegible. This means that subject to verification (which presumably has happened behind the scenes but is not announced), Ruto has passed the point that he cannot lose. He is 244K ahead with 227K votes uncounted. My numbers are:
I predicted no overall control, but no-one could have predicted a 164-164 split (that's allocating independents who left a party before or after the primaries back to the party they came on). The five true independents hold the balance of power. Whichever president wins will need a stable majority to govern, so is likely to make an offer to a smaller party from the losing side. My money is on Ruto and Musyoka.
My Kenya blog mostly trundles on with few postings and few readers, as I only post when i have something to say and some reason to say it. With the election itself and the sometimes controversial analyses and predictions I made, it did increase sharply. During the period of confusion as results first started to come out and no-one fully knew what was happening, there were lots of people reading. Readership peaked on 10 August with 1600 unique visitors.
in demographics, there's not much to see but Google was the number one source by a long way, while Twitter was no.2 and Facebook no.3.
Át the end of today I'll be shutting down the online blog and reverting to ad hoc and when needed.
I will post a full analysis of all the results here in due course and then work on the five way match as a tool to detect obvious anomalies, but the current results available for down ballot races are too incomplete to make it practical. IEBC: we need a portal for the other elections results.
Waiting for the presidentials !
13:00 no expected announcement, deferred to 15:00.
11:35 Announcement asked attendees to shift seats round to make space for presidential candidates to join
Overnight verification results all added...251 of 291 34Bs now verified and published (media says 258 are out but I can't find them). The other 7 are not on the nation or star web blogs.
Five anomalies found only in recent 34B verifications, very good match overall.
1. In Kuria East (Migori) the vote for Raila has reduced from 12,031 to 7031 in the Nation blog report but not the Star. I consider that a typo so have NOT included it and have left Raila at 12K.
2. Mandera South (Mandera) has seen the odinga vote reduced by 1200. Which seems positive as the turnout was extremely high before and frankly still remains high.
3. Saboti (Trans-Nzoia) saw 2000-3000 increases for both parties in the final verification.
4. Sabatia (Vihiga) saw 2600 more for Raila and 9600 more for Ruto. Which makes better sense as the turnout was very low before and the result odd.
5. Gichugu (Kirinyaga) Ruto's vote rose by 10,000 from 55,714 to 65,718 according to the Nation blog last night. That's an impossibly high turnout. Star has 56018 so ive used that.
Note the Nation blog report for Wajir West is actually for Wajir East and for Samburu West is actually for Samburu East.
Diaspora now added as correct form now recorded. Tiny.
Dadaab (Garissa) arrived overnight in the verifications. 20-1 for Raila and a high turnout is a little concerning but it's not impossible.
Lagdera (Garissa) was missing from the scanned 34Bs but has finally arrived with verification. 5-1 win for Raila but tiny. Turnout looks ok.
Starehe (Nairobi) has finally arrived and been verified (the scan was only partial). This was key as the largest missing seat. 46K Odinga to 43 K Ruto. Turnout reasonable.
Vihiga has also come in on the 34B portal overnight. Slightly pro-Raila, low turnout.
and finally Nyakach (the last Kisumu) has arrived, with a huge victory for Raila but no surprise.
UPDATED: Ruto is 253 K ahead with 250K (estd) votes to go... 7 m to 6.8 m.
A 1.8% margin of 50.6% to 48.8% without the six missing seats and without the 40 verifications.
Missing for me:
MERU TIGANIA EAST
KILIFI KILIFI NORTH
NAROK NAROK SOUTH
NAROK NAROK WEST
Good morning all.
We now have the final Gubernatorial result for Narok, as predicted a close UDA win.
This leaves KK 22 to Azimio 21, with two independents and two to fill.
My eve of poll prediction (scroll far down) was this: (please ignore the second "key" on the right)
Overall I'm feeling pretty good. Excluding the two deferrals and Isiolo which i could not predict, I got 38/44 correct. Independents won two from the local preferred alliances, so there were four where a different alliance won from my prediction.
Lots of news and a new prediction
1) Of the remaining verifications (where we know the original vote), nearly 2/3 are in areas where Raila performed better (65-40). Since Ruto is slightly ahead, this is statistically unlikely to have happened accidentally. It suggests pro-Raila seat verifications are being held back deliberately.
2) Kajiado East is finally in. Odinga win 2-1.
3) Kilgoris (Narok) is finally in . Ruto win.
4) Kacheliba (West Pokot) is finally in. Ruto win.
5) Wajir South is finally in.Raila narrow win
6) Voi finally in also. 2-1 Raila victory
Now only 8 entirely missing results and three where the form was corrupted:
Ruto is 340K ahead, 50.9% to 48.4%
Which is very close to unofficial counts from the 34Bs from both alliances which are circulating round social media.
Raila now need 82% of the remaining vote IF there is no playing around with the 34Bs. Not yet impossible but increasingly unlikely. Its key now to watch for sudden increases in the Raila vote in their heartlands in Nyanza (between the scanned 34B and the verified 34Bs).
Turnout still looks reasonable, no huge spikes. But Juja with those extra 10,000 votes is a bit high, Mandera South and Tarbaj look odd. Taveta is against the run of the region too. All four marked in red below.
The summary map, all done bar one (Turkana West !). Thanks for corrections to earlier version. Its a real party patchwork
NO OVERALL CONTROL
I'Ve now added the women reps as well, which Kenya Kwanza won 24-20.
Exactly as predicted on the of poll NO OVERALL CONTROL. The two alliances are exactly neck and neck with 161 seats each (and 1 missing)
Control will depend on influencing independents and the four delayed races. 2 will probably go to Azimio and two to KK.
We are moving into the endgame now. The vast majority of the 34Bs have been validated and announced, but the whereabouts of 13 constituency 34B returns five days after the polls closed is still unexplained. No new 34 scans have been uploaded in five hours except for the tiny Diaspora vote.
Meanwhile i've 166 checked scan versus final for differences, and there has been some news:
Cherangani (Trans-Nzoia) verification added 5000 votes to Ruto's total
Juja (Kiambu) increased Raila's total from 23,200 (on the form ) to 32,197, a huge 9000 increase. This give Juja the highest turnout in the region which is a little concerning late in the day. Needs checking please Bomas.
Mvita 34B has been loaded in place of Kisauni 34b in the portal. We didnt have Kisauni (but do now in the verification), and we also have Mvita.
350K ahead for Ruto, 48.3% to 51%. Raila needs 72% of the remaining (estd) votes to win.